https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

Resolves YES if Grok 4 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.

Resolves N/A on Jan 1st 2027 if it doesn't seem like we're going to get a Grok 4.

• Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the following points:

  • Any version of Grok 4 is eligible to fulfill the resolution criteria.

  • The one-week evaluation period for the market begins when the first version of a Grok 4 model appears on the leaderboard.

  • For the market to resolve YES, any version of Grok 4 must achieve the highest Arena Score within this single, initial one-week window.