the chances seem higher than 5%, even this late in the day.

@persimmon Be careful, not quite sure where you’re heading with this but you want to tread delicately.

@Predictor You’re just instigating. You’re well aware there are at least three options on the table here and only one of them is hairy.

@Predictor

Guy 1: "eh it seems possible"

Guy 2: uses thinly veiled threat that suggests some form of violence

?????????? Bro, what are you doing?

@Gameknight Threat? I'm worried Weston is insinuating he will do something to move the percent here (ala Luigi). I just want to check him at the door to keep those intrusive thoughts out of his head. It's not worth it.

@Gameknight Personally, I don't like how you're coming at me with this violent rhetoric of insults, so let's try to cool it.

@Predictor

Me: recaps the first two comments

You: throws another thinly veiled threat

um. ok???

@Gameknight Honestly, I have no idea then what you're getting at this point. Life isn't a 4chan meme so maybe communicate like a normal person?

i didn't even read the question, but the number when i bet no is just so much bigger than the number when i bet yes

I hope this didn’t drop 1% today because people are giving credence to the ridiculous “let him resign so Kamala can become the first woman president for a week” idea…

@mqudsi free money for you

Let’s just hope that the American democracy isn’t completely joever… please make the right choice in the eelctions… help yourselves… your allies… Ukraine…. If you abandon us now it’s the same story as with WW2.. don’t make the mistakes of Britain and France…

List of Russian wars and events similar to WW2

Chechnya = Anschluss/saarland

Georgia = Sudetenland

Crimea = Anschluss

Invasion of Ukraine = Poland

Vote for the prevalence of democracy…. Do not sacrifice others for yourselves…. Save yourselves and others… do not throw your allies to the wolves… do not leave the world to fall to the despotic and authoritarian regimes of China, North Korea and Russia…

Trump vows to make peace but he will make peace at the expense of Ukraine…. Not Russia….

(nothing ever happens)

Jill Biden now playing make believe in the White House, like a 5 year old serving tea to a cat. This is getting embarrassing.

@DonutThrow You never replied to my previous offer of a side bet. Care to bet now?

@NGK I am broke, very very broke

sell order at 90%. interested parties may arb with https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first as far as I can tell

@Bayesian Ah, there's a third option, which is that he dies before January 20.

And a fourth option is the 25th amendment is invoked - I think that doesn't count as resigning.

So these two markets should add to less than 100%.

oh good point

wait so these are even more arbable than previously thought?

@Bayesian Until someone fixes it 😉

@TimothyJohnson5c16 By buying my NO shares!

@Bayesian It's a very good deal, yes, I just didn't want to keep getting further into this trade because too much of my net worth is now bound up in these two dumb markets.

If loans come back, I'll be able to go back to doing more trades like this