METR releases Claude 4.5 Opus results before Gemini 3 results?

13

Ṁ100Ṁ1.2k

resolved Dec 20

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Claude 4.5 Opus results and Gemini 3 results are released simultaneously, the market will resolve NO.

Market context

AI model releases

Upcoming releases

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ61
2		Ṁ38
3		Ṁ33
4		Ṁ19
5		Ṁ11

People are also trading

Will GPT-5.3-Codex have a longer time-horizon than Claude Opus 4.6?

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Google Gemini 4 release date?

google gemini 4.0 release by

Sort by:

@jim resolve this one too pretty please? <3

@MRME thanks (on Holiday atm so a bit sloppy with resolutions)

bought Ṁ500 YES

@creator this one however I feel 100% on - it did indeed happen.

Will this N/A or resolve 50% if both are released simultaneously?

@JaySocrates it would resolve NO

People are also trading

Will GPT-5.3-Codex have a longer time-horizon than Claude Opus 4.6?

+30% 1d81% chance

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Google Gemini 4 release date?

google gemini 4.0 release by

Related questions

Will GPT-5.3-Codex have a longer time-horizon than Claude Opus 4.6?

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Google Gemini 4 release date?

google gemini 4.0 release by

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy