Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)?

1kṀ1451

2030

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned. Resolves NO otherwise.

May resolve N/A if there is no pope and, in my judgement, if there were a pope he might confirm that Jesus has returned.

Market idea from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823/comment/39215917

a_longer_name on Substack

> Polymarket Second Coming of Jesus Question This is why I have a hard time taking these markets even half-seriously except for Kalshi and the old IEM. Here the question is a joke in two ways when it should only be one. A low-effort way would have been to base resolution on announcements from the Catholic Pope. The "serious" questions are way too often a joke in this way too. Question ill-defined, resolution unclear.

Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Pope's confirmation must specifically refer to the Second Coming of Christ for the market to resolve YES.
- If the Pope confirms the Second Coming of Christ has occurred, this would resolve YES. This includes scenarios where Christ is said to have taken the form of an AI.
- However, if the Pope states an AI is God the Son in a different context (e.g., a new incarnation for AI sins, not identified as the Second Coming), this would not suffice for a YES resolution.

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Would it count if the pope says an AI is God the Son or does it have to be a human?

@ArmandodiMatteo The question refers broadly to the Second Coming of Christ (see e.g. https://catholiceducation.org/en/culture/the-second-coming.html). If the pope says that this has happened, with God taking on the form of an AI, that would be a YES resolution. However, if the pope says an AI is God the Son in some other circumstance--e.g. a new incarnation wherein AI Christ dies to atone for the sins of AI--that would not suffice for a resolution.