Is the US government currently (2023) hiding AI capabilities beyond the current state of the art? (Resolves 2040)
8
190Ṁ292
2041
6%
chance

Has to be qualitatively better than e.g. GPT-4, or what OpenAI is currently developing. Resolves to whatever mechanism Manifold uses to adjudicate complicated resolutions in 2040, or my judgement if nobody disputes it.

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