Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?
Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?
44
1.3kṀ36562030
91%
No global catastrophe
0.6%
Nuclear
1.9%
Biological
5%
Artificial Intelligence
0.9%
Nanotechnology
0.3%
Climate
0.4%
Other cause
If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause. Otherwise, resolves to "no global catastrophe".
See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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