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MANIFOLD
Was the Hawk fire in Reno Nevada started intentionally?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ113
Sep 30
42%
chance

The Hawk fire is a fire that started in the mountains nearby Reno Nevada on Aug. 22. As of Aug 23, we have confirmation that the fire was human-caused (https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/08/23/renos-uncontained-hawk-fire-was-caused-by-humans-authorities-say/

)

Was the fire intentionally started? (I might N/A the market or partially resolve it if the cause isn't clearly one of these two options)

  • Update 2026-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If no definitive answer is released by the end of the year, the market will resolve to N/A.

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Just to keep you all updated, I've been extending the date this closes each time the deadline rolls around. I'm planning on continuing until the end of the year, at which point I'll N/A if there aren't any answers.

As for why I don't just extend until the end of the year right now? I need the reminder to check every few weeks, otherwise I might miss the news

yo either a. it was intentional, we find out, or b. not intentional, we'll probably never find out

why not bet this to the sky

bought Ṁ40 NO

betting NO. roughly 21% of human-induced fires are attributed to arson.