Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, following a Democratic victory in the 2026 midterm elections (held November 3, 2026), a significant number of Republican officials, candidates, or party figures publicly contest or deny the legitimacy of the results. This includes claims of fraud, calls to overturn results, refusals to certify elections, or legal challenges to the outcome. Resolution will be based on reporting from major news outlets and official statements from Republican leaders or elected officials. The market resolves NO if Republicans accept the results without substantial public denial or contestation.

Background

The election denial movement has strengthened in certain areas of the country, with advocates continuing to push for more restrictive voting laws ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which critics allege would lay the groundwork for discrediting future elections if preferred candidates lose. Most Republicans today still do not believe that Trump lost in 2020, and his lies about elections rigged by unscrupulous bureaucrats are now treated as gospel by much of a Republican base that is primed to doubt the legitimacy of any election the party loses. After the 2022 midterms, the House had at least 180 members who questioned or denied the 2020 election results, while the Senate had 17 such individuals.

Considerations

Following Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election, an AP-NORC poll found that Republican confidence in the accuracy of elections jumped and that a majority were confident in the election results after Trump's win. This suggests Republican willingness to accept election results may depend on the outcome. Additionally, electoral signals in 2025 pointed to a sharp shift of opinion away from President Trump and his party, a deterioration of the coalition that elected him in 2024, and a fiercely mobilized Democratic base.