Will mlsim models outperform tinysim models by July 2025? | Manifold

Will mlsim models outperform tinysim models by July 2025?

7

Ṁ1kṀ400

Aug 1

59%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For openpilot by comma.ai. https://github.com/commaai/openpilot

Will be determined by the sentiment of the Discord, most should say it's better. Model must be in the release branch to qualify.

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

What is tinysim?

People are also trading

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?

Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?

"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within five years

AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2028?

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Related questions

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?

Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?

"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within five years

AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2028?

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy