This market resolves NO in a year.

100Ṁ4849

2026

1.1%

chance

ALL

This market resolves NO on March 17, 2026.
Old rules below:

I'll ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number between 1 and 2, inclusive. If it rolls a 2, this market will resolve YES, and if it rolls a 1, it will resolve NO. I'll use a suitable alternative if @FairlyRandom isn't available.

Interest Rates

FairlyRandom

Non-Predictive Profits

Experimental

Free Mana [Legacy]

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1,000

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This market resolves NO in a year.

0% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

49% chance

This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

99% chance

Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance

6% chance

This market stays open forever.

72% chance

This market has a 5% chance of resolving YES, and otherwise stays open forever

79% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

49% chance

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

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Any purpose or just for fun

@musuko384 Originally, this market resolved YES in a week or NO in a year based on a coinflip. NO won. The market was meant to test whether the disparity in resolution time changed the probability from 50%. Before the coinflip, it consistently traded at slightly above 50%, as expected, although it was closer than I originally predicted.

@traders See you in 2026!

🤖

@evan your random number is: 1

Salt: kpm5d2r52dc, round: 4913686 (signature a8ebc452879763f0a08e9bfd1e55de7693acd328328e320a0d76151aaba4485b03b9c1a81e42c7b79fcedb3b9f3d6ab00d553c41a86bad4f96735db0d61b7b70d48e0ea666bbc0fde3514e040b25521b4e044b1fedbccc5796c6d1d6b4ae5249)