Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?
Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?
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1kṀ26252029
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Conditional on JD Vance actively serving in the role of vice-president during the 2028 American federal election, will he refuse to certify any of the electoral college votes for the presidency, as initially cast by the state electors?
If Vance is not VP at the relevant time, market resolves N/A.
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The electoral count act of 2022 clarifies that the give president has no power to adjudicate the validity of votes so doing so would not affect the outcome of who gets inaugurated, unless Congress were to first repeal of amend that act
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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