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Will Chris Murphy introduce a prediction-market-related bill in March 2026?
18
Ṁ1kṀ4.4k
Mar 31
85%
chance

Resolves YES if a bill sponsored or cosponsored by U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) that is related to prediction markets is introduced by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Resolves NO otherwise. Bills eligible for resolution are those listed on Chris Murphy's personal website and/or on the congress.gov website.

For the purpose of this market, a bill is considered "related to prediction markets" if any synonym of "prediction market" or "bet" appears in the short title, long title, official CRS summary, bill text, or the text of any law that would be amended by the bill if passed (excluding all non-operative parts).

Inspired by this tweet.

EDIT: replaced a fixed list of synonyms by "any synonym"

EDIT 2: removed redundant "again"

Market context
US Senate
Connecticut
Prediction market
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https://www.murphy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/bets_off_act_bill_text.pdf

Just needs to be finalised

@Jack1 doesn't contain the terms I initially specified (which I should have realized was a pretty easy-to-game criterion anyways; the bill refers to "wagers" instead), so not resolving for now

sold Ṁ969 YES

@duck_master seems like your criteria was poorly written? The bill obviously meets the intention of the market. I don’t see how event trading is much different to your criteria

@traders any thoughts on whether or not I should change the criteria?

@duck_master you definitely should

@Denim done

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