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Does the message have to be read by Musk, or to have any non-negligible possibility of being read by Musk, to count? If not then it seems it could be easily manipulated by him commenting it here

@TheAllMemeingEye It has to be a best-effort serious-ish attempt, whatever that means (I'll know it when I see it).

So a comment here wouldn't count.

@draaglom Thanks for clarifying :)

Btw what is the context of the screenshot in the description?

@TheAllMemeingEye Nathan created this question: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/musk-out

I follow him on here, so Manifold sent me the email notification "Nathan Young asked Musk out?"

This got me thinking it was a valid question.