Ding vs. Gukesh - 2024 World Chess Championship prop bets

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Ṁ86k

resolved Dec 13

Resolved

A position reached after 10 moves is exactly similar to a position in two previous world championships

Resolved

YES

Average game length of the first half of the match is less than the second half

Resolved

Average accuracy of game 14 > 95% on lichess post-game analysis

Resolved

1.d4 is the most commonly played first move

Resolved

1.e4 is the most commonly played first move

Resolved

Final position in game 14 has a combined relative piece value of >30

Resolved

Game 14 is a draw in less than 45 moves

Resolved

Both players have >35% chance of winning game 14, per lczero

Resolved

Pawn to e5 is played at some point within the first three moves of game 14

Resolved

h-pawn crosses the fourth rank (to h5 for White or h4 for black) before move 14 in a game

Resolved

Average "average centipawn loss" for a single game is greater than 50 in a game

Resolved

The Queens Gambit Accepted is played at least once

Resolved

Winners TPR is >2820

Resolved

Either player forfeits the match before it's decided

Resolved

Match is decided by tiebreaks

Resolved

A player reaches >40% odds of winning game 14 on lczero, but does not convert their advantage

Resolved

YES

Any player reaches 90% odds of winning the match on Polymarket at some point during game 14

Resolved

Game 14 is decisive in less than 45 moves

Resolved

YES

Game 14 lasts more than 48 moves

Resolved

YES

Game 14 is decisive

Add your props. Please be as clear and concise as possible to avoid confusion.

Polymarket market referenced - https://polymarket.com/event/world-chess-championship-2024-winner?tid=1731990671056

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): All options refer to the classical portion of the match unless explicitly stated otherwise.

Update 2024-12-12 (PST): Market will be resolved based on number of moves rather than time. (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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25 Comments

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Since you all did so well predicting the future @traders, I made a new market on the new world champion's next challenger - https://manifold.markets/dlin007/which-chess-players-will-qualify-fo

@dlin007 by time or number of moves?

@R2D2sm5g number of moves. will resolve later today when i can double check

bought Ṁ180 NO

i (kinda) feel bad taking all of your mana...was this a math or comprehension issue? ( @Weezing ?)

the lichess graph is pretty clear

@dlin007 I dont remember betting on it so maybe a missclick, but i only bet 15, so its fine. Thanks for asking though.

@Weezing i found it at like 99% so i assume @kirilenkonik_ hastily bet on YES and then others just kinda followed him? If it was genuinely confusing i might N/A it

@dlin007 yea most likely. I usually N/A in these cases if it is a clear mistake and reimburse those who bet correctly of there is not too many of them.

@dlin007 but ofc nobody could say anything i you resolve it normally

@Weezing yeah, i'll wait a bit and see what the other traders say

my flight just landed and like...wtf happened here

@dlin007 Games 1, 8, 13

i'm going to be afk for the rest of the match, so i'll only resolve the pending options afterwards

bought Ṁ15 YES

@dlin007 How does this resolve if there is a tie for the most common move?

@Weezing if my English is correct, everything resolves NO

@dlin007 There was a long fight about this on one of @strutheo's Olympic markets.

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-usa-win-the-most-gold-meda

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @dlin007 both options are possible, but someone needs to decide it for this market. So I am assuming tie means NO.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 ha...yikes. My intention was that one opening move would be played more than any other, and if there was a tie, that didn't happen