This market predicts when Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire.
Context
Elon Musk recently became the first person to reach a net worth of $500 billion. His wealth has grown exponentially in recent years, from $24.6 billion in March 2020 to $100 billion in late 2020, $200 billion in 2021, $400 billion in 2024, and $500 billion in October 2025.
Musk's wealth is primarily tied to his stakes in Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Tesla shareholders will vote on November 6, 2025, on a compensation package that could potentially add up to $1 trillion to Musk's wealth over the next decade if Tesla reaches a market cap of $8.5 trillion.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the answer that most accurately reflects when Elon Musk's net worth first exceeds $1 trillion USD, as reported by either Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list or Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
If Musk's net worth does not reach $1 trillion by December 31, 2036, this market resolves to "January 2037 or later."
Sources for resolution:
Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator intends to add more months and years as time goes by to allow prediction of the exact month & year.
Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when the first source (either Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list or Bloomberg Billionaires Index) reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeding $1 trillion. It is not necessary for both sources to report this threshold.
Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will add additional months and years as answer options when Elon Musk's net worth approaches the $1 trillion threshold. Specifically, more granular date options will be added when his net worth surpasses $800 billion.
Update 2026-01-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Other" option is available as a catch-all answer choice. If Elon Musk's net worth surpasses $1 trillion at a time not covered by the specific month/year options listed, the market can resolve to "Other".
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So how is this resolving? I had the earliest dates of Dec 2026 and now Oct 2026 has been added. Normally these multiple choice mean that if it happens Aug 2026 then all dates after that become true. This is not what is trading here. The constant addition of earlier dates seems to be invalidating longer dates.
@brianwang when he will surpass $ 800B, I will add other months & year(s) which seems to be appropriate. I should have made time ranges from the very beginning, but when I realized it was too late...
@HillaryClinton I added also October 2026 and October 2027.. I'll add more as soon as I have a little more Mana...
@delfinasu okay I see. Perfect. Sorry I just got confused, since no option said "or before" You don't need to make an option for every single month in 2026 probably. That's overkill. Just change it to "October 2026 or before".
@delfinasu can you add before or "by" to the answers? no idea how this resolves if he becomes a trillionaire between choices.
@HillaryClinton the ideea is to add more months and years as time goes by in order to predict the exact month & year if it will happen before 2037.
@delfinasu okay so you'll add each month? Sounds good to me, I'll bet on Other then if we need to choose the exact month and year.