How many of the universities I applied to will I be accepted to?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ4.2k

May 3

12.3 universities

expected

ALL

1.6%

2 - 5

1.8%

6 - 7

12%

8 - 9

28%

10 - 12

52%

13 - 15

16 - 18

I applied to the following universities:

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (EA DEFERRED, RD ACCEPTED)
University of Southern California (EA DEFERRED)
UC Berkeley, UC Irvine (RD ACCEPTED), UCLA (RD ACCEPTED), UC Merced (RD ACCEPTED), UC San Diego (RD ACCEPTED), UC Santa Barbara (RD ACCEPTED)
UT Austin (RD ACCEPTED, Turing Honors Program ACCEPTED)
Columbia University
Harvard University
Princeton University

Yale University (LIKELY LETTER RECEIVED)

California Institute of Technology (RD ACCEPTED)
Carnegie Mellon University (RD WAITLISTED)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Stanford University

Cornell University

Some info:

Average overprivileged California Asian male
I applied math or CS everywhere, depending on the school. Rule of thumb was roughly whichever major had a better program at the university, and roughly whichever major I felt like I vibed more with
My essays were fine (I'm not exceedingly proud of them)
My SAT score/GPA/recs are good (I do not feel bad about them)
Programs I've been a part of: MIT PRIMES-USA 2024+2025, BU RISE 2025, SPARC 2024, Ross 2023

Will resolve once I get waitlist results back

Update 2026-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): UT Austin counts as 1 university (not 2), even though both the main acceptance and the Turing Honors Program acceptance were listed.

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Education

College Admissions

Higher Education

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5 Comments

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Congrats on the acceptances! :D

Also, I figured I should do my standard thing and tell others how/why I'm betting the way I am, now that I've made my bets:

There are a lot of really, really prestigious universities on the list.
We have 6 accepted right now, a 'probably' from Yale and a I'm not sure if the UT Austin counts as 2 or 1.
If there are 6 or more rejections, then we end up in the 12 or fewer range. I would be surprised if anyone, even the best candidate, got a 66% acceptance rate from these schools, let alone the 72% rate needed to hit 13/18. (Might be wrong here, I feel like I read once about 'best candidates get most acceptances or something)
I expect acceptances to show up before rejections. Seeing 6/6 acceptances right now doesn't say much about the rate of acceptances for the remaining 12 - all those wins means the rate is probably higher than I first thought, but definitely not evidence of a 100% rate. So I'm not updating much on the fact that we have 6 acceptances right now.

Not to diminish contabulator here - even getting those 6+ acceptances is huge! Nice job!

@DannyqnOht I agree with this - I think there is a pretty good chance I get near-swept on Ivy Day (minus Yale). UT Austin counts as 1, since it's 1 university.