Will the Flannery Associates Solano county land be zoned other than agricultural by 2030?
Will the Flannery Associates Solano county land be zoned other than agricultural by 2030?
7
170Ṁ702030
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/26/silicon-valley-elites-buy-800m-land-new-city
As best as I can find, here's a map of the purchased land:
And here's a screenshot of Solano County's zoning map:
Looks like the bulk of it is in various green agricultural zones.
If the developers want to build a city, presumably they will try to get their land re-zoned. Will this happen by 2030?
For now I'll plan to go by a "you know it when you see it" standard rather than any hard rules about % of land re-zoned. If it's substantially unclear, N/A. If you'd like to suggest improvements, these rules are fuzzy and subject to change until 1 October 2023.
See also
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?
25% chance
Will Flannery Associates promote a land value tax in any of its official communications before 2030?
46% chance
Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?
5% chance
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 1,500,000 USD in Q3 2029?
67% chance
Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030?
29% chance
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 2,000,000 USD in Q3 2029?
54% chance
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 1,000,000 USD in Q3 2029?
88% chance
Will SF permit more housing units in 2024 than in 2023?
13% chance
In 2030, will the Bay Area retain its dominant role and position?
81% chance
Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?
29% chance