Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook:
https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook
The US nonimmigrant inadmissibility rate for the purposes of this market is defined as:rate = inadmissible / (admissions + inadmissible)
If this rate is at least three times as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. Both the 2025 and 2024 rates will be calculated from data published in the 2025 yearbook, disregarding any data in the 2024 yearbook.
As an example, in the 2022 yearbook of immigration statistics:
https://ohss.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/2023_0818_plcy_yearbook_immigration_statistics_fy2022.pdf
Total nonimmigrant admissions (Table 25, page 65):
2021: 35,300,000
2022: 96,800,000
Inadmissibility determinations are (Table 37, page 98):
2021: 294,351
2022: 551,928
Therefore the inadmissibility rate is:
2021: 0.83%
2022: 0.57%
Potentially more timely publication of some of the same data can be found here:
https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration
Though I'm yet to see a data table other than that in the Yearbook that includes all nonimmigrant admissions, and not only I-94 admissions.
1,000