Nuno Loureiro, a Portugese plasma physicist, was killed in his home in Brookline, Massachusetts on Dec 15th, 2025.
Will his killer be apprehended by authorities before February 2026?
Resolves on credible media reports published before February 2026, US eastern time, that a suspect, whom authorities intend to charge with Loureiro's murder (or manslaughter or any comparable charge), has been apprehended.
Significant doubt expressed by law enforcement, as reported in credible media sources, as to whether an apprehended suspect is the culprit, will cause this market to remain open until the situation is clearer. Resolution still depends on the date a suspect was apprehended, however, and if such doubts are cleared up after February 2026, the market will still resolve YES if the culprit was caught before then.
For speedy resolution, the market will otherwise resolve NO on Feb 1st 2026 if there are no reports of any suspects being taken into custody, even if it later becomes known that this did occur prior to February.
Update 2025-12-18: if a suspect is found dead and it is clear that they would have been charged if alive, the market will resolve YES.
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Wikipedia says:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuno_Loureiro#Murder
On 18 December, authorities announced that they were investigating a link between Loureiro's murder and the shooting at Brown University three days prior that killed two and injured nine.[21] Authorities confirmed the link later that day at a press conference announcing the suicide of the lone suspect in the Brown University shooting, Cláudio Manuel Neves Valente, a Portuguese national.[22] The Connecticut State Police Forensic Science Lab confirmed that one of the firearms found with Valente matched the weapon used in Loureiro's murder.[23] Valente attended the Instituto Superior Técnico with Loureiro from 1995 to 2000, graduating first in his class, ahead of Loureiro.[24] Later that same day, authorities found Valente dead of a self-inflicted gunshot inside a storage unit in New Hampshire.[25]
Resolving YES
@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 aaaaaa this is why making markets is hard
I think it's fair to resolve YES if it's compelling they would have been charged if alive.
I'll update the description
@chrisjbillington is it tho? I mean your market description literally says "the market will otherwise resolve NO on Feb 1st 2026 if there are no reports of any suspects being taken into custody,"
You can't really take a dead suspect into custody
@theScalper Indeed you cannot and I apologise for not anticipating the possibility. The description was intended as a definition of what it means to be "caught", which otherwise many would understand to mean dead or alive. I should not have made it an exclusive definition.
I am not a market criteria literalist, and my profile says:
Resolution criteria of my markets may be revised in order to resolve major conflicts between the spirit and the letter. Please ask if unsure.
Ideally there are no such conflicts if markets are well thought out, but I do think markets function better this way.
In any case now that I've made a clarification it would be even worse to reverse it, so it will have to stand.