MANIFOLD
Will causal inference be “very important in AI” by 2035?
8
Ṁ220Ṁ203
2035
40%
chance

Resolves to Manifold poll, which will be open for one month after closing date. If the poll is tied this will resolve 50%, otherwise it will resolve to the majority.

The title of the poll will be “Is causal inference very important in AI right now?”

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causal inference is largely and will stay largely irrelevant, if anyone wants to buy YES feel free to @ me to bet

bought Ṁ10 NO

I think this sort of depends on whether people think "very important" means "it's an important subfield or aspect of the field" vs "it's essential to the cutting edge of the field".

the market creator is biased ❗

@astyerche it’s resolve to poll

@cc6 just make the poll

@Jono3h I’ll make it in 2035.

@cc6 excuse me, I didn't notice it's in 2035

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