Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2025 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)?
Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2025 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)?
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This question will use data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which runs the United States Crisis Monitor project.
For the purposes of this question, "a major spike in protests" means 1,000 or more demonstrations (protests and riots) in a single week in 2025, according to ACLED data.
The last time this threshold was passed was during the George Floyd protests, in May and June of 2020, visible as the only major spike in the ACLED's demonstration data from Jan 2020 to Mar 2024:
The largest protests of 2024 were Palestine/Israel demonstrations, which peaked at 643 demonstration events in any single week between April and May.
Will there be a major spike in protests in the United States in any week of 2024, according to ACLED data?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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