tristanbuckmaster (@tristanbuckmaster@mastodon.social)
Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Only the Millennium Prize formulation of the Navier-Stokes problem is valid for a YES resolution.
Partial solutions or progress towards a solution will not count.
Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve YES, OpenAI must have found the full solution before this market was created.
Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator intends to resolve the market based on the Lean-verified proof rather than waiting for formal peer review.
They will request a re-resolution if the proof is later found to be incorrect.
Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is about to resolve the market to YES.
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@imunorz if you mean the Clay Institute, they take two years. We're not waiting for that.
BTW, does anyone know whether they've started that process?
@calour what? "if there is no dispute"? That's basically taking openAI at face value. It'll take days or weeks to get independent confirmation of the result.
@VitorBosshard @calour Speaking with my non-Mod hat on, I also want to see if this solution can withstand scrutiny.
@VitorBosshard It's Lean- verified. I guess ppl will want to make sure that the statement itself is properly formalized, but that doesn't take a week
@AhronMaline Oh! I haven't been following this story as closely as some of you all. Take what I say with a grain of salt. Would you like to spare some of us the Google search and explain what Lean-verified means?
@AhronMaline If that's the case, then peer reviewers will tell us so! So let's wait until they do, no matter if it takes a day or a month.
@Quroe Lean is a typed programming language for mathematical theorem proving. The point of lean is that if a proof compiles than it is a proof of the theorem it is claiming to prove. So the convenience comes from only having to check how the theorem is stated and the computer checking if the proof is correct.
@Quroe if it's lean verified, there's no reason to wait, unless they didn't state the problem correctly but if they did it'd be very bad on them. so actually we could wait, but there's no reason for this market to not be at 99.9999%.
@JasonMendoza2008 huh, I asked Fable about this and it seemed to think there was a decent possibility that it will be controversial amongst mathematicians whether they stated the problem correctly/whether the proof actually resolves what mathematicians who work on this care about, way way more than 0.01%. Maybe Fable is just wrong here, I’m not read up let alone an expert on this topic, but I don’t think the lean aspect of this is quite so decisive as you’re implying.
@DavidHiggs the GitHub repo with the lean proof is public, we would’ve heard about that if that was the case
@JasonMendoza2008 it’s been known to take more than a few hours for mathematicians to parse this kind of thing, especially with barely comprehensible AI written proofs