Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on January 31st, 2026.
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Alright, since no one cares about the Feb 13th DHS partial shutdown... let's all look forward to October!!!
New market up!
https://manifold.markets/bens/us-government-shutdown-by-october-1
It never shutdown, yall lied
@VincentMartin Their criterion is: OPM must “announce a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations” on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on Jan 31, 2026.
U.S. Office of Personnel Management’s operating status page shows: “Due to a partial lapse in appropriations…” and it’s posted Jan 31, 2026 at 12:01 AM — which is comfortably before 11:59pm ET that same day.
IT’S HERE
@MRME This counts for resolution. For reference this was the notice issued during the October shutdown, compare to the current. Only difference is that it’s partial
@SemioticRivalry Yeah I just checked wayback machine, I yield, I was hoping it said something different prior
@brod how come your description points to https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ (note the "snow" in the URL)? 😂
@AnonUser that’s just where they post shutdown notices, page is also used for weather and other dismissal procedures
@SemioticRivalry God forbid an Office of Personnel Management director helps to resolve some markets /s
@Bandors Seeing chatter about someone who already hacked the OPM website and is ready to take it down before they update it. Funniest timeline ever
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/M-26-06-Status-of-Agency-Operations.pdf
Probably will be posted on the site sometime early in the morning…