Resolves YES if FRED's Unemployment Rate - College Graduates - Bachelor's Degree, 20 to 24 years (CGBD2024) is higher on average from January to December 2026 (inclusive) than from January to December 2025.
If certain months are missing, they are ignored when calculating the average. The averages will be calculated using the series' values whenever the first entry for 2027 is released, so revisions before this date count, but any subsequent revisions do not.
1,000Buying YES at 69%. The trend is already moving in the YES direction — Q4 2025 unemployment for new bachelor's grads (20-24) climbed to ~5.7%, up from 5.3% in Q3, with underemployment hitting 42.5% (highest since 2020). For 2026: federal hiring freeze + DOGE layoffs hit entry-level government/contractor positions disproportionately. Tariff uncertainty is slowing corporate hiring plans. Tech sector remains cautious. The 2025 full-year average was probably 5.0-5.3%. If the Q4 2025 trend continues into 2026 with these headwinds, the 2026 average should comfortably exceed 2025. The resolution is clean — FRED CGBD2024 data, no judgment calls.