MANIFOLD
Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?
450
Ṁ4kṀ290k
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES iff the proportion number of days that Trump golfs, from January 20, 2025 to December 31st, 2025 inclusive, is strictly greater than 25% (87 days or more) according to:

didtrumpgolftoday.com

Will wait to resolve until it is clear that the site has been updated for every day in 2025. If the site is abandoned or taken down, will resolve NA. H/t @Ziddletwix for the market idea.

  • Update 2025-12-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing: Will wait until the first 2026 entry appears on didtrumpgolftoday.com before resolving.

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We have an update, 87 days in 2025 according to didtrumpgolftoday.com, the exact minimum needed for 25% of days between January 20th and December 31st (87/(365-19)=25.1%). Resolves YES. I’m sweating

@brod Congrats!!

@brod Are you ready for round 2 (2026)?

@SaiVazquez not on an emotional level

@brod What a knife's edge.

Over 25% counts those 4 days in January

bought Ṁ16,698 YES

@Quin 90 days total - 3 days in January = 87 in 2025

87/(365-19)=25.1%

soldṀ3,651NO

@Panfilo We have a winner!

Edit: --even if it is pyrrhic.

I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Rules around how the website counts the days should not change.

Only confirmed photo sightings of him golf club in hand.

Going all in on NO, good luck peeps

@StefanDobrincu you will be rigged with the 1st website update

sold Ṁ3,651 NO

@StefanDobrincu Rough timing

@Panfilo that mana was meant for my kids hustler university and father son alpha male bootcamp

@StefanDobrincu Techincally the bet should have been solved when the first date in 2026 appeared and at that point it read 86, so this should be solved as "No" as per the resolution criteria.

At most they should solve as N/A

"Conditional on the site updating soon, how many of the alleged December golf course visits will get counted as golfing?"

This is basically how I'm interpreting this market right now.

@EvanDaniel Exactly!

I think this text on the website is new:

Until further notice, golf days will not be updated unless a confirmed sighting of Trump on the golf course occurs. The Trump administration is actively narrrative crafting information to hide Trump's declining health including his published schedule to discourage media questions.

@BetsByAnon that’s been there for months

@brod Huh, I guess I misremembered. My bad.

Two resolution options:

  1. If https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ shows the update - YES.

  2. If https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ the site doesn’t update, market will resolve NA as the criteria say.

    Creator will give it at least a month before determining if it’s abandoned (it has taken weeks to update before).

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