MANIFOLD
One Nation gets at least 5 seats in the South Australian election?
18
Ṁ1kṀ7.1k
Mar 29
10%
chance

Results YES iff One Nation is elected to 5 seats or more in South Australia's 2026 election according to the ABC:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/results

Results are currently being counted, will give it a few days to resolve. If ABC goes down, resolution source is Australian Electoral Commission or Wikipedia.

edit: lower house only

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Elections
Elections: World
Australia
Australian Politics
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@a_l_e_x if you really think they will get 5 seats you might want to also bet more on ON in this market of yours: /a_l_e_x/which-party-will-form-opposition-fo

@Gen I haven't done the napkin math to see where those 5 seats will come from exactly, but for example some electorates show ON ahead on the 2 party estimate with no preferences counted and I expect that to change... (could be cope)

@Gen yeah I probably should. Though to be clear I think 5 is unlikely and they may need 6 to pass the Liberals

@brod Total seats (lower + upper house), or just lower?

@xjp wait I was thinking of just lower house - @a_l_e_x was this also your impression?

@brod don't worry, I assumed it was lower house only so we're all good

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