MANIFOLD
Government shutdown for more than 5 days in Q1 2026?
157
Ṁ10kṀ260k
resolved Feb 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES iff the US federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations for strictly greater than five consecutive days in Q1 2026. A day counts if it is between January 1st and March 31st 2026, and a notice of a shutdown is present on this OPM page at 10am ET that day. Only the first shutdown in this range counts. If there are no shutdowns, this market resolves NO.

Market context
Gov shutdown
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With the notice now gone this will resolve NO after 10am ET feb 4th unless the notice goes back up then for some inexplicable reason

@brod so you're telling me there's a chance

bought Ṁ1,250 NO

@polymathematic doesn’t this just resolve NO given it’s past 10am ET and the notice is still gone

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 65% order

Order up!

opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 58% order

@xjp wanna bet? order up

@brod If only I had more mana

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