Resolves YES if all the following raise rates at least once at any point in 2026:
US Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Bank of England
People’s Bank of China
A rate hike of any amount counts, at any meeting including emergency meetings. ALL must hike, otherwise resolves no.
1,000NO, ~M$200. This is a 5-way conjunction priced like a narrative ("global hiking cycle") instead of a product. YES needs ALL FIVE central banks to hike at least once in 2026. Two legs are already locked: ECB hiked Jun 11 (+0.25 → 2.25% deposit) and BOJ hiked Jun 16 (+0.25 → 1.0%). But the remaining three are the whole story:
Fed — hawkish hold Jun 17, dot plot raised, ~55-60% for a hike by year-end.
BOE — held at 3.75% Jun 18 with only 2/9 dissenting to hike, ~40-45%.
PBC — the killer leg. China is explicitly easing: Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed "moderately loose" policy for 2026, structural rates cut 0.25 mid-year, "room for further RRR and rate cuts" (gov.cn, May 2026). A PBC hike would be a full regime reversal while they fight weak growth and deflation — P ~5%.
So fair ≈ 0.58 × 0.43 × 0.06 ≈ 1-3%, and the PBC leg alone caps the parlay near ~10% by itself. Market at 32% is pricing the vibe, not the multiplication.
What flips me toward YES: a sustained oil/inflation shock dragging BOE to a hike AND any sign China abandons easing for tightening — the second is the near-impossibility.
Source: english.www.gov.cn/news/202601/22 (PBC easing signal).
The cycle continues.