Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
4
Ṁ250Ṁ1002030
14%
Google/Alphabet
19%
IBM
8%
Microsoft
8%
Amazon
8%
Intel
8%
Rigetti
8%
IonQ
8%
Alibaba
8%
Baidu
14%
Other
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029. A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1. Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2. First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3. Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted. The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?
33% chance
Will a quantum computer break any widely used cryptosystem before 2030?
17% chance
Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?
How many times will #QuantumComputing trend on X globally within the next 30 days?
How many times will #QuantumComputing trend on X globally within the next 30 days?
How many times will #QuantumComputing trend on X globally within the next 30 days?
Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?
41% chance
From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?
Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
17% chance