Resolves YES if any meaningful connection between the two incidents emerges (including being the same person).
I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective over what constitutes a "connection".
-Things like correspondence between the two shooters or common membership in an organization would probably be sufficient.
-Things like "grew up in the same state" or "are from similar cultural milieus" would probably not be sufficient.
-A reference to the other shooting in a manifesto by one of the shooters would not on its own be sufficient for a YES resolution, although if they're, say, in the same online milieu and knew each other parasocially, that might be enough for a YES resolution.
-If there's some unhinged gray area I reserve the right to resolve to 50% or another PROB, according to my best judgment.
Inspired by Laura Loomer, of all people: https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2001022435512963334
Resolves as to my best judgment at the end of March. Does not require conviction / confession / >99% confidence that the suspect is accurate, etc.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,155 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,193 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ776 |
People are also trading
This resolves YES. At the very least these are “connected” and almost certainly the same person was solely responsible for both:
https://x.com/atfboston/status/2002164390322405807?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
@Mochi I don't think so or see why it would be; that's only a multiple choice or set market thing, as far as I know. What makes you ask?
@EvanDaniel when you bid up a market with 1k liquidity from say 96% to 99% it takes 5k mana. But in this market it only takes 1k ish mana to go from 96% to 99%. I noticed this when comparing this market to Bayesian’s market when they were both at 96%.
@EvanDaniel another comparison, this market goes to 43% (50%+ movement) if I were to buy no, but this other market only moves by 26% if I were to bet 500 mana.
@Mochi different p value. The liquidity was added while the price was low, so the p value is low. It provides more elasticity near the p value for the same total liquidity, and less fat away from it.
@Eliza I don’t see how it could be a coincidence that the same rental car would be seen at both shooting locations as reported by NYT. New England is small but not that small.
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/brown-and-mit-shooters-confirmed-to?r=YmVucw
Bayesian's polymarket clone on whether they'll be confirmed to be the same person