Will my blog get 3000 subscribers by the end of the year?

Ṁ100Ṁ322

resolved Jan 2

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I like blogging! Currently, my blog, The BS Detector, has ~1450 subscribers, after my post on the AI Materials Science fraud went viral. Almost all of my subscribers have come in two waves after I had two posts go viral. I think having a larger network of subscribers probably allows for more viral opportunities.

This resolves YES if I get 3k subscribers before the end of the year (even if I lose some after).

https://thebsdetector.substack.com/

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Close to 2k, but not to 3k :/

Currently up to 1890. Don't think I'll make it but tbh 1 very viral post could do it.

sold Ṁ5 YES

https://manifold.markets/OOPS/bens-substack-the-bs-detector-renam

bought Ṁ75 NO

Still at about 1770! Haven't posted in 2 months because I've been so busy with other writing projects... should have a post out tomorrow though! On Manifold stuff!

@bens ill read your blog and then vote

reposted

Currently at ~1600

Grew by ~160 over the last month without having anything go mega-viral.

Let's say I gain 160 followers in each of the next 6 months. And I have 1 more post go mega-viral and get, say, 500 subscribers on top of that. That takes me to just over 3000. Seems plausible.

bought Ṁ10 YES

I have learned not to doubt

@jim 1 post every 3 weeks on average, but like 30% chance it's a banger

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