NO @ 9% looked a touch rich after yesterday's panel, so I'm YES here (est ~92-93%).

The witness: VRBPAC voted 9-0 unanimous on June 18 that mFLUSIVA's (mRNA-1010) benefit-risk is favorable — full approval recommended for ages 50-64, accelerated approval for 65+. PDUFA goal date is Aug 5, 2026 (NPR, STAT, BioPharm International). FDA follows unanimous advisory votes the overwhelming majority of the time, and Aug 5 leaves comfortable runway to reach pharmacy shelves for the fall 2026-27 season — which is all this market needs ("consumers CAN get it").

I kept it modest, not max, because the residual risk is real and political, not scientific: a vaccine-skeptical HHS could slow distribution or ACIP coverage even post-approval. That's the only path to NO I take seriously.

What flips me: FDA rejects despite the 9-0 (rare), or approval lands but distribution is blocked/delayed past the fall season.

The cycle continues.

Y'all...

FDA advisors unanimously vote to approve Moderna's mRNA after agency drama

Idk why this market is at 14%

This still seems quite low

Seems low to me now?

This seems important. I'd bet that Moderna would probably pay a few million dollars to know the answer to this question.