News is that 538 is getting shut down by ABC/Disney. What company (if any) will fulfill this role by the end of 2026?
At the end of 2026, I will assess which polling aggregators are being used by major publications, bloggers, tv shows on the midterms, etc...
If there are, say, 2 very clearly tied polling aggregators, this could resolve 50/50 (or 33/33/33). However, I am incentivized to pick just one if at all possible.
Resolves just before the 2026 midterms. Resolution may be subjective so I will not bet in this market, obviously.
If there is not even a single company/polling aggregator that could qualify as a "consensus aggregator", resolves to "THERE IS NO CONSENSUS AGGREGATOR".
1,000I think there is a good chance AI gets to 30%+ and passed social media. Traditional media could drop to 10-15% Online could drop to 30% or less. What is cited by TV, radio and print will be different than AI, social media and online. I also think AI could be cited by the other sources. AI would be the consensus aggregator. Would AI could as other OR no consensus? @bens
By the 2026 midterms only about 25% of US households will have regular TV.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/258460/number-and-share-of-cord-cutters-in-the-us/
by 2026, print news will be less than 20% as a news source. 74% rarely to never.
https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/fact-sheet/news-platform-fact-sheet/
AI Estimate-
In 2025, an estimated 10-15% of Americans might use AI models for political news, context, and polling analysis, compared to 40-50% for social media, 20-30% for TV, radio, and print, and 30-40% for Google News and internet websites. By 2026, AI usage could rise to 15-20%, social media might drop to 35-45%, traditional media could decline to 15-25%, and online platforms might hold at 35-45%.
Nate just launched a trump approval tracker: https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin?r=3g4rzm&utm_medium=ios