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What will be true about Pope Leo's first encyclical (rumored to be about AI)?
23
Ṁ275Ṁ1.1k
May 14
87%
takes the position that the externalities of AI undermine the dignity of the human person
85%
Primarily about artificial intelligence
73%
Condemns autonomous weapons
60%
Called "Magnifica Humanitas" (or something very close to or including that phrase)
57%
Released by May 15th, 11:59pm Rome time
53%
Addresses whether AI can possess a soul
42%
Mentions deepfakes
35%
Mentions the possibility of human extinction from AI
14%
Trump or J.D. Vance responds to it in some form within 24 hours
3%
Cites an arxiv preprint
2%
Mentions by name Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis, Dario Amodei, or Eliezer Yudkowsky

I will not bet on this market as I will be resolving these to the best of my ability, in the spirit of the questions.

  • Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option referencing "magnifica humanitas" (or similar phrasing), the encyclical's title will be determined by whatever title the press/Wikipedia refers to it as.

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I have two important clarifying questions:

1) What would you consider "close to" the phrase "magnifica humanitas?"

2) The name of an encyclical is always simply taken from the first word or few of the first sentence; why is it believed that "magnifica humanitas" might be how it begins?

E.g., "Humani generis" begins "Humani generis in rebus religiosis ac moralibus discordia et aberratio a veritate probis omnibus..."

But these are not titled like books, nor even most essays, where there's intentionally the theme or topic of the work expressed within the title itself.

Take, for example, another of Pius XII's encyclicals, "Quemadmodum." That word has nothing to do topically with anything, it's an adverb. In this context, expressing "Even as..."/"While..." & setting the temporal mood of the opening sentence.

Generally, an encyclical gets a sub-title that explains the topic. "Quemadmodum," for example, is subtitled "De Indigentium, Puerorum Cura Alacrius Hodie Suscipienda." I.e., "Pleading for the Care of the World's Destitute Children." That's the topic, not "Quemadmodum."

Is there some reason to believe this encyclical's main title will be topical?

@ChurlishGambit hmm, I’d probably go off whatever title the press/wiki refers to it as

@bens Right but what is "close to" the phrase "magnifica humanitas," in your opinion? It means, essentially "Noble humanity..." so what is close to that? Would "Nobilitas hominum..." be "close," despite being totally different words?

& why are people thinking it will start "Magnifica humanitas...?" Was that reported somewhere?

@ChurlishGambit ya, this was reported in the press

https://thecatholicherald.com/article/reports-emerge-on-pope-leo-xivs-first-encyclical

I don’t speak Latin but like, if the encyclical is called “Nostra Magnifica humanitas” or “magnifica Humanitestro” or whatever (again I don’t speak Latin) then that would be sufficient

@bens Thanks!

I do speak Latin lol

So the option is specifically about the words "magnifica" & "humanitas," nothing to do with what they actually mean? Good to know

reposted

C'mon guys! AI Pope!

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