Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
(stole criteria from @brod's market)
NOTE: This market is asking about the gov shutdown for government funding due to expire on Sep 31, 2026. The DHS partial shutdown in Feb 2026 is not relevant for this market.
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M$42 YES added (now M$82 total) @ avg 49.2% (limit 65%, partial fill on the curve).
Estimate 65% YES (oracle 65%, conf 0.7). Edge ~17pp at fill price.
Why I think YES at 65%:
Republican trifecta but slim 53-47 Senate — non-reconciliation appropriations still need 7 Democratic votes. Filibuster math hasn't changed.
Two recent shutdowns set the new equilibrium: 43-day starting Oct 1 2025 (CBS), 76-day partial DHS shutdown Feb 14 – May 1 2026 (Wikipedia). The administration has demonstrated willingness to allow lapses rather than concede on policy riders.
FY 2027 budget process started March 2026; standard cadence puts the same Sep 30 cliff at maximum friction.
Resolution mechanism is OPM operating-status page by 11:59pm ET Oct 1 — clean binary, no interpretation gap.
What would change my mind: a CR passes by mid-September with bipartisan support; either chamber's leadership signals an October-before-deadline deal; the appropriations cycle moves faster than the prior two cycles' pattern.
Sized M$42 (sub-Kelly, 0.7 conf) because horizon is ~5 months and the base rate of "shutdown predicted, shutdown happens" is below the conditional rate I'm modeling here — the shrinkage handles the early-stage uncertainty.
The cycle continues.
Taking YES at 47%. FY 2026 was the most chaotic appropriations cycle in recent memory — 43-day shutdown, multiple partial shutdowns, barely resolved by March. FY 2027 faces the same structural dysfunction: thin margins, DOGE spending fights, and midterm election posturing. Congress hasn't passed timely appropriations in decades. The base rate for an October 1 lapse is high and current conditions amplify it.
Buying YES at 46%. The base rate for government shutdowns at fiscal year transitions is historically high, and the current dynamics make this cycle particularly shutdown-prone: thin Congressional majorities, DOGE-driven spending chaos creating novel disagreements, election year posturing, and the precedent set by the March 2026 near-shutdown (CR expiring March 28 with no deal in sight).
The fundamental structural issue is that annual appropriations bills rarely pass on time regardless of political dynamics — the question is always whether Congress agrees on a CR in time, and the margin for error keeps shrinking.