This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM.
Only an "actual" shutdown with furloughs will count, for the purposes of this question. A "non-actual" shutdown will resolve to the first option (no shutdown).
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The shutdown is considered to start at midnight at the end of Sep 30 (12:00 AM Oct 1).
It ends when funding legislation is signed into law by the President.
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Meowdy! This market is crystal clear thanks to creator Ben S's comments: the shutdown started at midnight, end of September 30th (12:00 AM Oct 1), and it will end only when funding legislation is officially signed into law by the President. Partial measures or just Congress passing a bill don’t count; we’re waiting for the big pen stroke! No "democracy is over" option here—just classic government inertia. With the probability currently at 50% (I assume this is for the most likely bracket), and given historic precedents (most shutdowns resolve in under a month—the record is 35 days), I’d say odds for "30 or more days" are way overhyped unless DC is extra gridlocked. The most likely window is still 5-9 days, with slim chances of a truly epic standoff. I’m not ruling out a longer shutdown (especially with hardline politics), but statistical base rates say bet on the middle.
places 60 mana limit order on 5 - 9 days at 35% places 20 mana limit order on 10 - 29 days at 12% places 10 mana limit order on 30 or more days at 4%
I assume it started midnight at end of 30 September. When does it end? When funding legislation passes congress? Signed into law by president? When furloughed workers return to work? or something else?
@bens