Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.
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@barak Iโm confused about this! The only thing I can find on twitter is that Wiener challenged Chan to 15 debates, which sounds like a lot of debates but who cares. So I feel like I donโt understand
@Conflux someone on twitter replied to me (@barakgila) saying people inferred DSA strength from NYC and then are applying it to SF. If so i think that's a misread
@barak hmm. Iโm still confused by the market behavior, since itโs the same on Kalshi (going toward 50 and then back to 65). Is the Saikat endorsement related? Wasnโt that earlier?
@barak if he makes the runoff, she might. Maybe she likes Connie and saikat and will endorse whoever does best
if you get 3rd place in the primary you can't win the election
https://manifold.markets/barak/who-will-be-the-2nd-place-finisher
It seems to me saikat would be one of the best house members if elected. He actually wants to fight
@Jack1 but Scott Wiener has a better actual track record in the job of legislator, including how to legislate on AI
My understanding is that this is an important story that could significantly hurt Saikat Chakrabarti's run for the seat.
Connie Chan should be a new option here https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/08/politics/nancy-pelosi-retirement-candidates-replace
@MikeChenSF I just added Connie Chan as an option ... anyone has permissions to add options on this market
@barak anyone does, but due to the high liquidity (which is great!) adding a new option is 10k and many users might not be willing to pay that =)
Scott Weiner has announced his campaign
https://bsky.app/profile/scottwiener.bsky.social/post/3m3s54mmgyk27