This market resolves yes.

Source: This random mr beast market will clearly not be @AmmonLam, manifold market superforecaster's biggest loss.

@121 As somebody with a now vested interest in your success, I don't think you're down for the count yet.

https://socialblade.com/youtube/handle/mrbeast

If mr beast does not get 460 million subscribers, he will have officially fell off.

This is a tricky one. Right now he's at 450.5M subs. So he needs 9.5M more subs over about 1.5 months. Historically that seems like an easy yes, though his last 6 weeks have been unusually sluggish.

67% chance

Views are up! I'm a buyer at 70%, expect we'll see the next +1m after one less day than the previous

you can't outfeast the beast

New NO limit at 80, the line is wiggling SADLY

Limit no at 84%, I have done linear regression so y'all better watch out, I'm a sharp

@JTBooth if your linear regression pegs it at 84% then I’d bet with the seasonality and macro trends the real prob is like 75

I also did an independent coin analysis (landed on heads) so I bet 500 more NO

@Gen my regression says he's exactly on track for 560, within like twelve hours of midnight. My market uninformed view is 50/50. Deferring to the market, I figure the true probability probably isn't above 5/6, so I'm drawing the line at 84%.

@bagelfan limit order up!

mr beast!