Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?
Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?
6
1kṀ4602027
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if there is a statewide ballot measure about AI that is endorsed by Scott Alexander in a blog post. Resolves the day before the 2026 midterm elections.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
64% chance
Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
49% chance
Will California sign into law any more AI bills before July 2025?
44% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
14% chance
Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?
65% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 1.000 or more votes?
28% chance
Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?
28% chance
Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035?
6% chance
Will California pass an AI Safety bill in 2025?
51% chance