Will OpenAI release o3 >1 week before GPT-5?
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28%
chance
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A release is availability via either the API or to paid ChatGPT subscribers.
Integration into wrappers like Deep Research or exclusive access to certain companies or testers doesn’t count.
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
The market will resolve only when o3 or GPT-5 is released.
If GPT-5 is released without o3 being released first, the market will resolve as No.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ahalekelly hmm, up to you, I was just posting it to spread the info. Still pretty decent odds that they cjange their minds and release o3, certainly not impossible
@PhilosophyBear not sure what you’re implying? This market doesn’t resolve until one of these two is released. Yes if they release GPT-5 and not o3 then it resolves No.