Will OpenAI release o3 >1 week before GPT-5?
25
1kṀ3821
2026
28%
chance

A release is availability via either the API or to paid ChatGPT subscribers.

Integration into wrappers like Deep Research or exclusive access to certain companies or testers doesn’t count.

  • Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

    • The market will resolve only when o3 or GPT-5 is released.

    • If GPT-5 is released without o3 being released first, the market will resolve as No.

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Why has this market changed to >1 week?

bought Ṁ250 NO

https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244

"No longer releasing o3 as standalone"

@Arcmage7000 oh thank you I missed that part, maybe I should N/A the market

@ahalekelly hmm, up to you, I was just posting it to spread the info. Still pretty decent odds that they cjange their minds and release o3, certainly not impossible

@Arcmage7000 yeah this market is at 24% which is pretty significant, I’ll leave it open then

bought Ṁ250 NO

@ahalekelly not releasing should resolve no

@PhilosophyBear not sure what you’re implying? This market doesn’t resolve until one of these two is released. Yes if they release GPT-5 and not o3 then it resolves No.

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