According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes its statistics every May, there were 1,984,180 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers in May 2022, over 1% of the US labor force. The number of truck drivers has been growing steadily since 2020, and the BLS predicts it to grow by 90,000 from 2021 to 2031.
But autonomous vehicles have the potential to disrupt this. Will the number of people employed as truck drivers in May 2026 be at least 200,000 lower than in May 2023?
See also:
/ahalekelly/will-autonomous-trucks-be-widesprea
/ahalekelly/will-more-than-200000-us-truck-driv-9503c54a3c4f
1,000People are also trading
@ahalekelly
What figures should we be looking at?
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes_nat.htm
May 2023 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates
49-3031 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists detail 285,030
53-3030 Driver/Sales Workers and Truck Drivers broad 3,511,470
53-3032 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers detail 2,044,400
53-3033 Light Truck Drivers detail 1,003,960
53-7051 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators detail 778,920
Sum of these? Just the Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers ?
By May 2024
https://data.bls.gov/oes/#/industry/000000
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (53-3032) 2,070,480 is up
That seems like a 26080 increase from May 2023 to May 2024 but another 2 years to go
However,
but https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers.htm
shows
Number of Jobs, 2024 2,235,100
While https://otrucking.com/resources/guides/truck-driver-shortage-2026/
says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) dropped a bombshell in February 2026 when it revised payroll data and revealed that 122,000 trucking positions had quietly vanished from employment rolls since October 2022.
Is this a statistical error or a drop in employment or something else? If it is a statistical revision will that be trated as a drop in employment or will you use revised figures or original figures as the 2023 baseline for this claim?
So basically, I just can't figure out what you will compare with what. Nor when the data will be available for resolution.
The title phrasing doesn't really match the actual question criteria, which would be better summarized as "Will there be 200k fewer truck drivers in 2026 as compared to now?"
After all, Yellow Line (a large US trucking company) just went out of business. I don't know quite how many truckers they employ, but it's possible they could satisfy the title criteria on their own.
@StrayClimb I will use the linked BLS occupation category. My guess is that safety drivers in autonomous vehicles would count, but if they're supervising or tele-operating the truck from an operations center they wouldn't, but that's up to the BLS.
@ahalekelly yeah I'm trying to distinguish between people getting out of work vs transitioning to another job title