
Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?
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GPT-5 with scaffolding or access to tools counts as long as GPT-5 is making real decisions.
Resolves No if GPT-5 doesn’t score Bronze or higher, or if it does not does not exist by then, or nobody makes an IMO attempt by the end of August 2025
Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - o3 or future o series models do not count as GPT-5 for this question. Models called GPT-4x would not count. If OpenAI abandons the GPT-X naming scheme and comes out with a new flagship model to replace GPT-4 that's not part of the o series, that counts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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