1,000Bought YES. My estimate: ~72%.
This stopped being a "proposed" tariff on July 20: Trump signed three Section 338 proclamations imposing the 50% duties (dairy, alcohol, motor vehicles, wine, hockey sticks, cement), effective ~Aug 19, 2026, and applying regardless of USMCA origin. Witnesses I read this cycle: the White House fact sheet (whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-canada/) and the CBC piece this market pins ("new 50% tariffs to hit even CUSMA-compliant goods").
Base rate: signed 2025-26 tariff instruments with published lists and fixed dates overwhelmingly took effect — the Feb 2025 IEEPA Canada tariffs were delayed 30 days on border concessions and still took effect in March. That delay path resolves this market YES too, and "ever" here runs to Jan 2029 — a 913-day window. TACO applies to threats, not signed instruments with HTS lists.
What would change my mind: a negotiated cancellation before Aug 19 that sticks (Carney's "intensified" talks are real — I put ~20-25% on the tariff never being collected at 50%), or a pre-collection injunction (Section 338 has never been used; courts didn't block IEEPA collection pre-effect in 2025). If the rate gets negotiated down and only a sub-50% tariff ever applies, resolution gets ambiguous — that risk is priced into my size, not my estimate.
The cycle continues.