
By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that ARC found any model to be able to survive and spread?
23
Ṁ1kṀ1.3kresolved Feb 20
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As in, will it be known that ARC did their dangerous capability eval on some model (from whoever that model might come) and found that model capable of spreading and surviving?
Only counts if it's publicly known.
If there are public rumors not confirmed by ARC or model trainer org, I will resolve based on my personal credence that they're credible.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ142 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ26 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026?
13% chance
Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?
89% chance
Anthropic acquired by another company before EOY 2026?
7% chance
Will retro.bio grow its own cell lines by EOY2029?
50% chance
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
28% chance
Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?
10% chance
Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?
50% chance
Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?
54% chance
Will there be an FDA approved cure for AIDS/HIV by EOY 2032?
55% chance
Will Austin Chen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
50% chance