When will Fable be publicly accessible again?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ3.8k

2028

January 24, 2027

ALL

Before June 15, 2026

34%

June 16-22, 2026

33%

June 23-30, 2026

25%

July 1-15, 2026

12%

July 16-31, 2026

August 2026

September 2026 or later

Fable no longer accessible to anyone while Anthropic implements controls against non-US nationals accessing the model:

Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) on X

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of

Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): US-only access counts as resolution — the market resolves when Fable becomes accessible at all, regardless of geographic restrictions. This is not contingent on US regulations being relaxed.

Market context

Anthropic

Fable

Claude

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Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?

28% chance

Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before July 1?

39% chance

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?

21% chance

When will Anthropic's API customers get access to Fable 5 again?

Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?

78% chance

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

56% chance

Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?

62% chance

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

16% chance

Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?

9% chance

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?

66% chance

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This should be dependent but isn't for some reason

@100Anonymous true. I didn't know that was a separate option

bought Ṁ100 NO

@ae What if they allow US only access?

@xjp that counts and is my assumption as to what is most likely to happen. This question is not about the US relaxing its regulations, it's about the model being accessible at all.