This market will resolve to Yes if the recently drafted McHenry-Thompson cryptocurrency bill becomes law (with only moderate revision) by 2025. This is pretty subjective, so I will be looking for major provisions to remain intact. In particular, I will be leaning on the interpretations of the crypto community, like @lex_node.

Draft:

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AG/AG00/20230606/116051/HHRG-118-AG00-20230606-SD003.pdf

Interpretations:

https://twitter.com/JBSDC/status/1664791786038935552?s=20

https://twitter.com/lex_node/status/1665693527735517184?s=20

Examples:

If the securities law exemption for "end user distribution" is struck, this will resolve NO.

If the exemption for "ancillary activities" is struck, this will resolve NO.

If the CFTC's broad ability to exempt exchanges from the rules is struck, this may still resolve YES: https://twitter.com/JBSDC/status/1665062861100466181?s=20