Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, at the close date, Anthony Albanese is the Prime Minister of Australia and has a net approval rating greater than zero according to the most recently conducted opinion poll by Essential, YouGov or Pyxis (Newspoll).
If either of these things is not true at the close date, this market will resolve NO.
Close date
This market will close at 13:00:00 UTC on 31 December 2025.
Clarifications
For the purpose of this market, 'net approval rating' and 'net satisfaction rating' are interchangeable.
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a poll's results for the relevant satisfaction/approval question have not been published by the close date, that poll will be ignored for resolution purposes, and the next most recently conducted poll with published results will be used instead.
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The most recently conducted opinion poll by Essential, YouGov or Pyxis to provide a published net approval rating for Anthony Albanese is this one by Essential. With 43% approval and 45% disapproval, his net approval rating is negative. This market resolves NO.
@SaviorofPlant I considered doing it that way. There are flaws with each method. Yes, relying on the single most recent poll allows the market to be decided by an outlier. On the other hand, using an average of multiple polls could allow the market to be decided partly by old data (e.g. the latest Newspoll is over a month old, and a lot has happened since then).
You might say "well, use an average and just exclude polls that are over a month old". And that is probably what I'll do next time. But in this case, it would have yielded the exact same result because we only seem to have one poll for this month anyway.
But I'm open to feedback on various aspects of the market, like whether I should include more pollsters (even if this means using less transparent, non-APC ones) and whether polls should be weighted by recency, etc.
@mods something strange is happening here, 8 brand new accounts just traded in this market and they all appear to be the same person
@a_l_e_x thanks for the shout. @RikkiReed @RikkiReedyhs5 @RikkiReedNuQQ Rikki rikki rikki rikki and rikki, please note that alts in this fashion aren't allowed. I have to burn some stuff down now
@Stralor actually rikki, I dont initially see any bonus nonsense, so if you let me know which account you'd like to keep I'll take this in good faith
It seems YouGov conducted a poll (commissioned by Sky News) from 16-23 December, asking (among other things) whether respondents were satisfied or dissatisfied with Albanese.
As of today, this would be the most recently conducted poll for the purpose of this market. The problem is that, as far I can see, the results for that particular question have not been published either by YouGov or Sky News. (This article discusses some findings of the poll, but not the ones we need.)
If there is still no published net satisfaction rating from that poll at the close date, I will have to ignore it. As of today, the next most recently conducted poll is this one by Essential, dated 10 December. Albanese's net approval rating in that poll was -2 percentage points.