MANIFOLD
What will be the government response to the Bondi shooting?
9
Ṁ600Ṁ3.8k
2027
10%
New migrants will be required to pass an 'Australian values' test
8%
The National Terrorism Threat Level will be raised
Resolved
YES
Laws or regulations relating to firearms will be made more stringent
Resolved
YES
A new criminal offence relating to hate speech will be created
Resolved
YES
A federal Royal Commission will be held

Resolution criteria

Each option will resolve YES if, by the end of 2027, it forms part of the response by the legislative or executive branches of the Australian federal government or the New South Wales state government to the Bondi shooting on 14 December 2025.

Each option will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

An action will be considered part of the government response to the Bondi shooting if its proponents justify it with reference to the Bondi shooting.

In order to be considered part of the government response for the purpose of this market, a law (or an amendment to an existing law) must receive Royal Assent (if applicable) by the end of 2027.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

This bill passed both houses last night (does not yet have royal assent):

https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/bills/r7422_aspassed/toc_pdf/26003b01.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf

It creates six new criminal offences, listed in Division 114B (page 20):

  • Directing activities of a prohibited hate group

  • Membership of a prohibited hate group

  • Recruiting for a prohibited hate group

  • Training involving a prohibited hate group

  • Funding a prohibited hate group

  • Providing support to a prohibited hate group

A prohibited hate group is one that has (in the AFP Minister's judgement) engaged in, prepared, planned, assisted, or advocated conduct constituting a hate crime, where "hate crime" includes public incitement of hatred of a person or group based on race, national, or ethnic origin.

I think this would be enough for "A new criminal offence relating to hate speech will be created" to resolve, once it has royal assent.

@chrisjbillington thanks. Reading the bill, I'm satisfied that the offences relate to hate speech. Resolving YES

bought Ṁ20 NO

ABC:

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will put tougher gun laws to national cabinet today which could include limits to the number of guns someone can possess legally and a review of existing licences. National cabinet is due to meet at 4pm AEDT.

I made an event thingy

https://manifold.markets/tv/106

To predict the motive:

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