MANIFOLD
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
11
Ṁ190Ṁ408
2027
82%
chance

Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws

I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.

Market context
AI
Technical AI Timelines
LLMs
Machine Learning
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How does this apply if the architecture evolves beyond transformers?

People are also trading

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
-8% 1d14% chance
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
67% chance
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10% chance
Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?
9% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
37% chance
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
56% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy