Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
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52%
In 2026, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
81%
In 2027, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
84%
In 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution:
I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I'm leaning towards NO for 2025:
"In both New Jersey and Virginia, abortion-related ads still account for roughly one in six dollars spent on TV"
AI rose the most in importance in 2026 over 2025, and is currently only slightly ahead of abortion, indicating that AI was probably lower in 2025 (especially since there's been a lot of news about AI in just the first few months of 2026).
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